Search results for "conditional probability"
showing 10 items of 63 documents
Spatial dynamics of an invasive bird species assessed using robust design occupancy analysis: the case of the Eurasian collared dove ( Streptopelia d…
2007
Aim The study of the spatial dynamics of invasive species is a key issue in invasion ecology. While mathematical models are useful for predicting the extent of population expansions, they are not suitable for measuring and characterizing spatial patterns of invasion unless the probability of detection is homogeneous across the distribution range. Here, we apply recently developed statistical approaches incorporating detection uncertainty to characterize the spatial dynamics of an invasive bird species, the Eurasian collared dove (Streptopelia decaocto). Location France. Methods Data on presence/absence of doves were recorded from 1996 to 2004 over 1045 grid cells (28 × 20 km) covering th…
Predictive distributions that mimic frequencies over a restricted subdomain
2020
A predictive distribution over a sequence of $$N+1$$ events is said to be “frequency mimicking” whenever the probability for the final event conditioned on the outcome of the first N events equals the relative frequency of successes among them. Exchangeable distributions that exhibit this feature universally are known to have several annoying concomitant properties. We motivate frequency mimicking assertions over a limited subdomain in practical problems of finite inference, and we identify their computable coherent implications. We provide some examples using reference distributions, and we introduce computational software to generate any complete specification desired. Theorems on reducti…
Probabilities of conditionals and previsions of iterated conditionals
2019
Abstract We analyze selected iterated conditionals in the framework of conditional random quantities. We point out that it is instructive to examine Lewis's triviality result, which shows the conditions a conditional must satisfy for its probability to be the conditional probability. In our approach, however, we avoid triviality because the import-export principle is invalid. We then analyze an example of reasoning under partial knowledge where, given a conditional if A then C as information, the probability of A should intuitively increase. We explain this intuition by making some implicit background information explicit. We consider several (generalized) iterated conditionals, which allow…
Path integral solution for non-linear system enforced by Poisson White Noise
2008
Abstract In this paper the response in terms of probability density function of non-linear systems under Poisson White Noise is considered. The problem is handled via path integral (PI) solution that may be considered as a step-by-step solution technique in terms of probability density function. First the extension of the PI to the case of Poisson White Noise is derived, then it is shown that at the limit when the time step becomes an infinitesimal quantity the Kolmogorov–Feller (K–F) equation is fully restored enforcing the validity of the approximations made in obtaining the conditional probability appearing in the Chapman Kolmogorov equation (starting point of the PI). Spectral counterpa…
Vectors of Pairwise Item Preferences
2019
Neural embedding has been widely applied as an effective category of vectorization methods in real-world recommender systems. However, its exploration of users’ explicit feedback on items, to create good quality user and item vectors is still limited. Existing neural embedding methods only consider the items that are accessed by the users, but neglect the scenario when a user gives high or low rating to a particular item. In this paper, we propose Pref2Vec, a method to generate vector representations of pairwise item preferences, users and items, which can be directly utilized for machine learning tasks. Specifically, Pref2Vec considers users’ pairwise item preferences as elementary units. …
On conditional probabilities and their canonical extensions to Boolean algebras of compound conditionals
2023
In this paper we investigate canonical extensions of conditional probabilities to Boolean algebras of conditionals. Before entering into the probabilistic setting, we first prove that the lattice order relation of every Boolean algebra of conditionals can be characterized in terms of the well-known order relation given by Goodman and Nguyen. Then, as an interesting methodological tool, we show that canonical extensions behave well with respect to conditional subalgebras. As a consequence, we prove that a canonical extension and its original conditional probability agree on basic conditionals. Moreover, we verify that the probability of conjunctions and disjunctions of conditionals in a rece…
Role of conditional probability in multiscale stationary markovian processes.
2010
The aim of the paper is to understand how the inclusion of more and more time-scales into a stochastic stationary Markovian process affects its conditional probability. To this end, we consider two Gaussian processes: (i) a short-range correlated process with an infinite set of time-scales bounded from below, and (ii) a power-law correlated process with an infinite and unbounded set of time-scales. For these processes we investigate the equal position conditional probability P(x,t|x,0) and the mean First Passage Time T(L). The function P(x,t|x,0) can be considered as a proxy of the persistence, i.e. the fact that when a process reaches a position x then it spends some time around that posit…
Durum wheat yield uncertainty under different tillage management practices and climatic conditions
2019
Abstract In the field of conservative agriculture, no-till (NT) management has been receiving increasing interest, with 45 million ha of land under no-till management in 1999 to 155 million ha in 2014. Up until now, no-till has only been observed to perform better under rainfed conditions, especially in dry climates mainly because the reduced tillage system retains more soil moisture. However, the adoption of alternative agricultural practices (NT) can be improved only if uncertain and consequent assumption of risk is well known and accepted. For these reasons, the aim of this research is (i) to define durum wheat suitability under NT soil management in terms of yield success probability an…
Probabilistic Logic under Coherence‚ Model−Theoretic Probabilistic Logic‚ and Default Reasoning in System P
2016
We study probabilistic logic under the viewpoint of the coherence principle of de Finetti. In detail, we explore how probabilistic reasoning under coherence is related to model-theoretic probabilistic reasoning and to default reasoning in System P. In particular, we show that the notions of g-coherence and of g-coherent entailment can be expressed by combining notions in model-theoretic probabilistic logic with concepts from default reasoning. Moreover, we show that probabilistic reasoning under coherence is a generalization of default reasoning in System P. That is, we provide a new probabilistic semantics for System P, which neither uses infinitesimal probabilities nor atomic bound (or bi…
Probabilistic Logic under Coherence, Model-Theoretic Probabilistic Logic, and Default Reasoning
2001
We study probabilistic logic under the viewpoint of the coherence principle of de Finetti. In detail, we explore the relationship between coherence-based and model-theoretic probabilistic logic. Interestingly, we show that the notions of g-coherence and of g-coherent entailment can be expressed by combining notions in model-theoretic probabilistic logic with concepts from default reasoning. Crucially, we even show that probabilistic reasoning under coherence is a probabilistic generalization of default reasoning in system P. That is, we provide a new probabilistic semantics for system P, which is neither based on infinitesimal probabilities nor on atomic-bound (or also big-stepped) probabil…